New York Congressional Races Expected To Be EXTREMELY CLOSE

Daily Report September 09,2024

Several hotly contested congressional races in New York could determine which party controls Congress for the next few years. In 2022, the Empire State unexpectedly tilted the balance in favor of the GOP, and Republicans are now trying to maintain their majority in the upcoming November 5 elections, while Democrats aim to reclaim control with Kamala Harris leading the ticket.

Currently, the House stands at 220 Republicans and 211 Democrats. Four Republican wins in New York’s swing districts during the 2022 midterms helped secure the GOP’s majority, but now these first-term incumbents are facing challenging re-election battles.

The Democrats managed to regain one seat earlier this year in a February special election when Rep. Tom Suozzi won back House District 3, which covers parts of Nassau County and Queens. This seat had been vacated by Republican George Santos, who was expelled from office following numerous controversies. Suozzi, who previously represented the district, had not sought re-election in 2022 due to an unsuccessful run for governor.

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Political insiders suggest that key factors in these races will include how former President Donald Trump and Kamala Harris perform at the top of the ticket in these competitive districts, and how this impacts down-ballot races. This is also the first presidential election since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the Roe v. Wade ruling, significantly influencing state-level abortion legislation.

Over the summer, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Super PAC and other aligned groups launched millions of dollars in TV ads attacking Republicans on women’s rights issues. In response, the incumbents’ campaigns ran ads stating their opposition to a national abortion ban.

Meanwhile, Republicans argue that the main issues that will resonate with voters are economic concerns such as inflation, crime, and illegal immigration, which they believe will play to their advantage. “The impact of inflation has cut into the incomes of workers by 5% to 15%,” said State Republican Party Chairman Ed Cox, who feels these issues will put Democrats on the defensive.

The Cook Political Report has identified four key races to watch: District 4, District 17, District 19, and District 22.

Meanwhile, Democrats remain optimistic about gaining seats.

“Eight weeks out from Election Day, New York Democrats are building formidable campaigns to reach every voter possible across Long Island, the Hudson Valley, and Central New York,” said Ellie Dougherty, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

She criticized the Republicans for their records on abortion rights, Social Security, Medicare, and law enforcement, claiming they are losing momentum and facing a financial shortfall.

Republicans, however, remain confident. Ed Cox reiterated that voters care most about issues such as the economy, immigration, and crime, which he believes favor the GOP. Additionally, he expressed optimism about Rep. Brandon Williams’ re-election chances, suggesting they look better than the Cook Political Report’s rankings indicate.

With the balance of power at stake, these New York races are critical for both parties heading into the November elections.