Harris Has 6-Point Lead in Minnesota Over Trump

Daily Report July 27,2024

HARRIS Winning in MINNESOTA

Vice President Kamala Harris has a 6-point lead over former President Donald Trump in a Fox News survey released Friday, putting her in a good position to prolong Minnesota’s Democratic presidential streak since 1976.

Almost the same as 2020 (52.40 percent Biden, 45.28 percent Trump), 52 percent of people choose Harris to Trump. These values are within the sampling error. The survey was conducted following Trump’s July 13 assassination attempt and Biden’s July 21 withdrawal and Harris endorsement.

Urban voters (65 percent), suburban women (63 percent), White voters with a college degree (60 percent), women (58 percent), voters 65 and older (58 percent), union households (57 percent), and Independents (53 percent), support Harris.

Trump’s alliance includes White evangelical Christians (69 percent), White men without college degrees (59 percent), rural voters (56 percent), men under 45 (54 percent), and voters under 30 (52 percent).

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Harris has more party (95 percent Democrats) and ideological (93 percent liberal) support than Trump (81 percent conservatives and 93 percent Republicans). About 7 in 10 Minnesotans are highly motivated to vote this November, and Harris wins by 7 points.

In hypothetical matches against Trump, the vice president outperforms Gretchen Whitmer (49 percent vs. Trump 46 percent) and Josh Shapiro (49 percent vs. Trump 45 percent).

Harris falls below 50 percent in the extended ballot, but Trump suffers more: Harris 47 percent, Trump 41 percent, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 7 percent, Jill Stein and Cornel West 1 percent each. Two-way Trump supporters desert to third parties 10 percent more than Harris supporters (7 percent).

Minnesota has only Kennedy as a third-party candidate.

Harris has 9 points more favorability than Biden. Biden has a 14-point negative rating, while she has a 4-point net positive rating (51 percent favorable vs. 47 percent unfavorable).

Amy Klobuchar, the senior U.S. Democratic Senator from Minnesota, has 57 percent favorable and 38 percent unfavorable. Whitmer (39 percent favorable, 33 percent unfavorable, 28 percent can’t rate) and Shapiro (33 percent favorable, 27 percent unfavorable, 40 percent can’t rate) are other Biden alternatives in positive territory but less well known in Minnesota.

Job performance is greater than personal favorability: 46 percent approve, 53 percent disapprove of the president.

The 83 percent acceptance rate for Biden’s presidential withdrawal is strong. Democrats approve 90 percent more than Independents (83 percent), or Republicans (76 percent). While majorities support his withdrawal, 68 percent of voters want him to finish his term compared to 30 percent who support his resignation.

Trump’s positive rating is down 13 points (43 percent, 56 percent), while his vice-presidential running partner JD Vance is down 8 points and less well-known (37 percent, 45 percent, 18 percent can’t rate). “Minnesota is a tough nut for the Republicans, and Harris is a better fit in Minnesota than Biden,” adds Fox News Poll partner Daron Shaw.