Donald Trump Pulls Ahead Of Kamala Harris Recent Polling Shows

Daily Report September 08,2024

Former President Donald Trump pulled ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris for the first time in weeks in a major national poll, prompting concern that her campaign has begun to fizzle only days before their next debate.

In a national New York Times/Siena College poll, Trump squeaks past Harris 48% to 47% with likely voters.

The outcome is consistent with survey numbers late last month that showed Trump topping Harris not long after President Biden dropped out. Other polls, just weeks after the Democratic National Convention, have also begun to showTrump pulling even with Harris.

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Even so, Trump is close and led most of the way in Ballotpedia, but 70% say he has said things voters find offensive.

Harris, who rose to the top of ticket after Biden’s exit from the race, soared in popularity and beat out Trump in RealClearPolitics averages and many battleground state polls — that once again remain very much up for grabs.

The poll also finds voters trust Harris over Trump adjacencies such as abortion, 54%- to-49%, and democracy, 50% -45%, but do so more for the ex-president on economy (55%-42%) and immigration (53%-43%). Voter worries over the economy (21%), abortion (14%), immigration problems in general but migration crisis on the U.S. border specifically not mentioned fore example), inflation or rise in cost of living, and democracy were all tied at 7%.

Democrats have a slight edge in enthusiasm, with 91% of Democrats expressing at least some excitement compared to 85% of Republicans.

It also indicates, though — as other polling has shown recently — that Harris’ momentum may be ebbing: 56% said they do not see her breaking from the style of Biden. A mere 25% see her as an agent of major change, while half even more people feel that way about Trump. As Democratic political strategists (such as James Carville) have argued, the candidate who tells voters that they are a changemaker will win.

Trump’s favorability ratings, meanwhile, have eased a little to 46% of voters holding favorable views (compared with 48% in July). Harris, for her part, has an even lower favorability rating than Trump — 45% of voters have a favorable opinion and 50% unfavorable.

Tuesday’s debate in Philadelphia, hosted by ABC News, could have a real impact on what is now an extremely close campaign with just eight weeks until Election Day.

Even with her slippage in the polls of late, Harris still maintains a slight edge over Trump by 1.4 percentage points in RealClearPolitics’ compilation of national polling averages. Her campaign also has trumpeted his financial muscle, announcing a $361m August haul which is triple what Trump raised.

With the debate imminent, both candidates are gearing up to argue their case before voters at a moment that could shift this neck-and-neck contest.